Mortgages Hit 6.69% (5th Week Up).

"The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence — it is to act with yesterday's logic." — Peter Drucker

In Ohio for the Gem City Jam — last year raised millions (and this year on track for more) for the Dayton Children's Hospital. Big thank you to the Klaben family at Morris Furniture for showing why doing the right thing always wins. Supporting local is always in style.

Last week fuel spiked and freight cooled. This week the whiplash reversed on itself: Brent fell ~7% on hopes of a Hormuz reopening, while ocean freight quietly rebounded — the fourth flip in seven weeks.

60-Second Brief

The cost picture swapped seats again. Brent traded around $84.18/bbl (Aug 10), down roughly 7% on the week from the ~$90 print in our last issue, as markets priced in the possibility of an Iran-Oman arrangement that would eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The national gas average eased to ~$4.01 (AAA, Aug 9) from ~$4.10 two weeks ago — a modest give-back, not a trend. Diesel stayed elevated and sticky at ~$5.35/gallon.

But freight went the other direction: the Drewry World Container Index rebounded 1% to $4,297/FEU (Aug 6), snapping a three-week slide, with Shanghai-LA up 3% to $5,894 as carriers made general rate increases stick and Chinese port congestion tightened capacity. So fuel down, freight up — the mirror image of last week.

Mortgages offered no help: the 30-year fixed rose a fifth straight week to 6.69% (Freddie Mac, Aug 6), its highest since July 2025, after the Fed held on July 29; next decision is mid-September. On the demand side, the zero-click shift keeps accelerating — an estimated 93% of searches now end without a click when AI Mode is active.

Energy & Cost Environment

Brent traded near $84.18/bbl (Aug 10), down ~7% on the week from ~$90 in our last issue — the sharpest weekly drop in months. The driver is the same input we've tracked all summer: Hormuz. Iran and Oman signaled a deal is "close" (Aug 8), and even the prospect of the strait reopening — which carries ~20% of seaborne oil — pulled the war-risk premium out of the price.

→ ACTION: Do NOT rebuild your quotes around $84 Brent yet. Iran's own officials said the deal is "close but not enough to open the waterway," so this is a hope-driven dip, not a confirmed reopening. Keep modeling landed and delivery costs on an $84–90 band with a spike branch if talks collapse. This is now the fourth reversal in seven weeks — your surcharge policy should be built for volatility, not for any single week's number.

Gas eased to ~$4.01/gallon (AAA, Aug 9) from ~$4.10 two weeks ago — down about nine cents, tracking crude lower with a lag. Diesel, the number that actually hits your delivery P&L, stayed high and noisy at ~$5.35/gallon (week ending Aug 3), essentially flat on the week. Verify the live AAA diesel print before you quote any delivery contract.

→ ACTION: The small gas dip does not justify touching your surcharge — diesel is what moves your trucks, and diesel hasn't fallen. If you held your surcharge through the late-July spike (as we advised), stay put. Two clean weeks of decline is still the bar before you make any customer-facing promise, and we don't have one.

Mortgage rates: the 30-year fixed rose to 6.69% (Freddie Mac, Aug 6), up from 6.66% last issue — a fifth consecutive weekly increase and the highest reading since July 2025. Inflation concerns and the Fed's July 29 hold are keeping upward pressure on. Next Fed decision is mid-September.

→ ACTION: Rates grinding higher is a mild but real headwind — this is now five straight weeks up, not noise. Lean into "upgrade and replace what you have," not "buy for the new house." Watch the mid-September Fed meeting; a cut would be the first genuine demand tailwind in months, and you'll want messaging ready if it comes.

Freight / Supply Chain

The Drewry World Container Index rebounded 1% to $4,297/FEU (Aug 6), ending a three-week decline. Shanghai-LA rose 3% to $5,894/FEU and Shanghai-NY 4% to $7,893/FEU, as carriers pushed through general rate increases and port congestion in central and south China constrained capacity. This is the reverse of two weeks ago, when freight was falling and fuel climbing.

→ ACTION FOR DEALERS: The window to reprice inbound POs to the July lows is closing — rates have turned back up. If you have containers to book, lock rates now rather than waiting for a dip that's fading. Ask specifically whether your forwarder is layering GRIs or peak-season surcharges on top of the base spot rate.

→ ACTION FOR REPS: The message to dealers flipped again — "freight firming, fuel easing." Get ahead of it so your dealers aren't whipsawed by contradictory carrier quotes. Net landed cost is roughly a wash week-over-week; the story is the volatility itself, and dealers who plan for it beat dealers who react to it.

AI, Search & Agentic Commerce

The zero-click shift is accelerating: an estimated 93% of searches now end without a click when AI Mode is active, and AI Overviews appear on roughly half of all queries. But the traffic that does come through from AI surfaces is better — those visitors stay ~8% longer, view ~12% more pages, and are ~23% less likely to bounce. Fewer clicks, higher-intent clicks.

→ ACTION: Stop measuring SEO health by raw traffic volume alone — it will keep falling and that's now structural. Track assisted conversions and revenue from AI-referred sessions instead. The retailers winning this shift are the ones whose product data machines can read and cite; that's where the high-intent clicks come from.

Google's Universal Commerce Protocol and Universal Cart continue widening across Search, Gemini, YouTube and Maps, with Merchant Center rebuilt as the primary interface between your catalog and autonomous shopping agents. The AI performance insights, conversational attributes, and "Ask Advisor" tools we flagged are live.

→ ACTION FOR DEALERS: If you haven't opened Merchant Center's AI performance insights yet, do it this week — it's the only way to see whether AI surfaces are sending you anything. A near-zero number means your feed, not your market, is the problem, and it's fixable with complete attributes and clean pricing.

→ ACTION FOR REPS: Push your structured-data-ready dealers to turn these tools on and get UCP-compliant before Universal Cart widens past its launch brands. Dealers with clean feeds and review depth get included in agentic checkout; dealers without get excluded — and no ad budget buys back a missing feed.

Furniture & Home Retail

The closure wave rolled on: Gorman's Home Furnishings, an 86-year-old Michigan retailer founded in 1940, wound down two showrooms with business concluding Aug 8. It fits the pattern — 2026 has already seen at least 17 furniture retailers announce closures or liquidations, with soft demand, elevated rates, and shifting discovery cited as the pressures.

→ ACTION: In a market where long-established names are folding, share moves to whoever executes one thing clearly best — delivery speed, in-stock depth, white-glove service, or digital discoverability. "A little better at everything" is exactly the middle that's closing. Pick your lane and be measurably the best in your market at it.

The tell underneath the closures: capital is still flowing, but only to the extremes — value-and-scale operators (Bob's recent IPO filing) and clean digital-first players. The squeezed middle is where the liquidations cluster.

→ ACTION: If you're an independent, don't try to out-price a national discounter — you'll lose. Win on curation and service the big formats can't replicate, and make sure that story is discoverable online, because the shopper decides before they ever walk in.

Tariffs & Trade

Section 301 duties remain live and unchanged: Chinese-origin furniture (HTS Ch. 94 — wooden furniture, seating, mattresses, home furnishings) still carries the 25% Section 301 surcharge, and these are NOT affected by the IEEPA ruling. Section 122's 10% tariff expired July 24; new Section 301 actions are widely anticipated as a replacement, but no confirmed rate or date has been published — treat any specific number you hear as unverified until your broker confirms.

→ ACTION: Re-confirm HTS classification on every incoming PO — misclassification remains the most common and most expensive error in this environment. Where landed cost has moved, adjust retail pricing rather than eating the margin, and don't reprice off a rumored new tariff that hasn't been published.

IEEPA refunds remain the open money. After the Supreme Court struck the IEEPA tariffs (Learning Resources v. Trump, Feb 20, 2026), duties paid Feb 4, 2025 through Feb 24, 2026 are refund-eligible — but only via a protest filed within the 180-day post-liquidation window. That deadline is statutory; CBP has no authority to extend it, and it runs entry by entry.

→ ACTION: Pull your entry documentation this week and map each entry's liquidation date. File protests around day 150 to stay safely inside 180. The Home Furnishings Association has an active advocacy update on this if you want the industry-specific walkthrough. Every entry that ages out converts a refund into a write-off — found money with an expiration date.

Three Signals Worth Watching

1. [WATCH] Hormuz Reopening Hopes — Brent fell ~7% to ~$84 on signals of an Iran-Oman deal, but Iran itself calls it "close, not done." Don't rebuild quotes around the lower number until the strait actually reopens; model an $84–90 band and keep a spike branch.

2. [CRITICAL] IEEPA Refund Clock — The 180-day protest window is statutory and rolling entry by entry. Map liquidation dates and file now; aged-out entries are unrecoverable.

3. [ACT NOW] Freight Turned Back Up — The WCI rebounded to $4,297/FEU and Shanghai-LA is up 3%. The cheap-booking window is closing — lock inbound rates now rather than waiting for a dip that's fading.

Action Matrix

CRITICAL (This Week)

• Map IEEPA entry liquidation dates and file protests inside the 180-day window
• Re-confirm HTS classification on all incoming POs; adjust retail where landed cost moved
• Lock inbound ocean rates before the freight rebound runs further; check for GRI/PSS add-ons
• Verify the live AAA diesel print before quoting any delivery contract

HIGH (Now)

• Hold your delivery surcharge — diesel hasn't fallen, so the gas dip doesn't justify a cut
• Open Merchant Center AI performance insights; get your feed UCP-ready before Universal Cart widens
• Switch your SEO scorecard from raw traffic to AI-referred assisted conversions and revenue
• Keep review velocity and schema completeness as weekly KPIs

MEDIUM (0-60 days)

• Watch the mid-September Fed meeting — a cut is the first real demand tailwind; have messaging ready
• Watch for a published replacement to the expired Section 122 tariff; don't reprice off rumors
• Pick one execution lane — delivery, in-stock, service, or discoverability — and lead your market in it

Mailbag

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Best, DOVR Intelligence